Monday, July 25, 2011

Analysis: Bing keeps Microsoft below weigh and PC gains are tips

MicrosoftMicrosoft said that it has sold now more than 400 m Windows 7 licenses. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Following Microsoft blockbuster financial results on Thursday night, you look a little closer at Microsoft online services - which continue to a hole that eats everything just resemble, which is thrown into it. Above all, money.

Here is the chart:

Microsoft Online Services profit/lossMicrosoft online services earnings after quarter of calendar 2005 - 4Q 2Q 2011 calendar

Any way you cut it, that is not good. Revenue is about flat and continue at a greater level than revenue - so of the first quarter sales was losses $62 m and the losses were 728 m.

True, Microsoft invested heavily in the cloud services (are part of the online services) - Office 365 has an overall positive reception - but at some point, the supertanker has either to turn or fall into a black hole and everything you start really suck (to metaphors in a terrible way mix) it is.

Saw what positive in the fact that Sequentlally revenues for the quarter, but rose as the chart shows it about 20% of the peak times, which were in the October 2006 - June 2007 analysts (the covering large three quarters in the middle).

And let us also refer to my predictions about Windows sales and profit from blog post a few days ago.

At the time calculated mulling Microsoft's claim on 400 m Windows 7 licenses have sold, I, on the basis of Microsoft's financials last numbers:

Going to Microsoft's own financial results (numbers come from the fourth quarter until next week), three-year average sales per Windows PC sold is $56.47, and profit is $39.91.


Close the two scenarios and the following result for the Windows Division:

• 75 m PCs sold: revenues: $4. 23bn; Enjoy $2-. 99bn

• 80 m PCs sold: revenues: $4. 52bn; Profit: $3 billion.

In the case, we know that there were a total of 81.2 m (Gartner) or 80.4 (IDC)-Windows PCs sold in the quarter. Call it 80.8 m for comfort. By my math, you will find Windows Division, which had revenues of $4. 56bn and profits of $3. 22bn then.

In the event, it was $2. 94bn (drum roll) $4. 74bn and profit. Benefits lower turnover (4% higher than the model), (9% as the model).

Why could that be? Since the prices of Windows down pushed are even while the sales. This is the China-effect, that it is more piracy in China, but it is also the place (along with India and other Asian countries), where the sale is booming.

Yet Microsoft Office, can that needed only an installed base, now in the direction to make 2 billion money reliable, even though Windows left in the device.

Meanwhile, Apple announced that it 1 m times OSX lion was sold in its first day. This is a whole lot. Of course, now can you argue about whether, which caught up with Windows 7 (to do quite a bit) or is always a head start on Windows 8. Of the performances of the two, I think that it is more like this. And what will Microsoft Pro-PC sales and profits look is ready by the time Windows 8?


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